An End to the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict?

Parents and leaders of the free world have the same question: How do you bring peace between two bickering sides? 

According to an article on CNN Shaky Ukraine ceasefire, the chances of peace are slim in Ukraine and Russia.  

             Various leaders, including Russian President,
Vladimir Putin (second from the left) attend the meeting
 in Minsk, Belarus (source: www.telegraph.co.uk)

Is the Russian-Ukrainian Ceasefire Effective?

            The peace deal was agreed upon in Minsk, Belarus about two weeks ago. Slowly, Russia and the Ukraine have started withdrawing their weaponry. Although a ceasefire was signed, tensions are still high, and the occasional artillery fire is heard from time to time. There is a clear lack of trust between both sides, as a spokesman cited Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, on twitter saying, “Ukrainian military are ready to return the equipment to the front line any time.” The Ukraine does not trust Russia.

How does Russia’s Natural Gas Supply Affect the Conflict?

            Russia is a huge supplier of natural gas to the Ukraine and the rest of Europe. The company that supplies this gas is Gazprom. Russia’s supply of natural gas is very important for the Ukraine and the European Union countries because one-third of what they use comes from Russia. This is not the first time that Russia has threatened to cut-off natural gas supply to the Ukraine; however, this threat is not as powerful because the worst part of the winter season is over. Just in case, the Ukraine has some supplies of oil on reserve and could potentially get natural gas through reverse supply.

So, What Happens Now?

          Although heavy weaponry has been reduced by both sides, violence still occurs, specifically near Mariupol (Ukrainian town) and around the Donetsk airport. According to Ertugrul Apakan, who is the chief monitor of the OSCE mission in Ukraine, the situation needs to be highly monitored. This will require a large amount of various technologies, such as drones. Moreover, the one million people that were forced to leave their homes in the Ukraine need assistance as soon as possible. Although there has been progress, there are many things to be taken care of and people to help, without causing any more tensions between the two countries.  According to Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, “Ukraine must keep its nonaligned status ‘in order to keep the stability in Europe.’”

FUTURE RESEARCH: I am interested in seeing whether the United States will get involved and to what extent.